Here’s to hoping that Trump isn’t a sure thing.
But if I were a betting man, I’d have to put money on whatever Allan Lichtman says.
Who is Allan Lichtman, you ask?
Well, he’s a political historian and an American University professor but more importantly, he’s correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections.
Sadly, Lichtman believes that the winner of the 2020 presidential election will be someone that we are already familiar with:
orange satan current president Donald J. Trump.
Lichtman told CNN’s Brooke Baldwin on Wednesday that unless Democrats “grow a spine” and begin impeachment proceedings against Trump—calling the decision both “constitutionally” and “politically” right—they don’t have a shot in 2020.
“It’s a false dichotomy to say Democrats have a choice between doing what is right and what is constitutional and what is politically right. Impeachment is also politically right,” Lichtman told CNN’s Brooke Baldwin on Wednesday.
Lichtman uses his system of 13 “key factors” to determine who will be president. According to the Hill, the factors range from “whether the party has an incumbent president running to the country’s short- and long-term economic conditions to foreign policy successes and failures.”
If the party loses out on six factors or more, Lichtman says they will lose the presidency.
From the Hill:
Lichtman says the Trump administration is down three key factors: Republican losses in the midterms elections, a “lack of foreign policy success” and Trump’s “limited appeal to voters,” CNN reported. Impeachment would trigger a fourth key — scandal over the proceeding’s public nature.
“Let’s not forget, impeachment is not just a vote in the House,” Lichtman said. “It involves public hearings as part of the impeachment inquiry, and, what everyone forgets, a public trial in the Senate in which House prosecutors present evidence, present documents, make opening and closing statements.”
Lichtman noted that scandal hurt Vice President Al Gore’s chances and ultimately cost him the 2000 presidential election after President Clinton’s impeachment process.
“Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020,” Lichtman told CNN’s Chris Cillizza on Tuesday.
Now, if only we could get Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi on board, which might not be as hard as we once thought, considering she’s leaning into her shady side. Never forget that she was the seal-handed clapper during the president’s State of the Union, and though it was a soft attempt at a clapback, it was a nice amount of white lady shade.