Trump has previously boasted about sending the National Guard to cities like Chicago, New York, and California. However data shows many Republican-led states are facing similar—or even higher—crime rates. Following a series of striking tweets from Governor Gavin Newsom, who accused some red states of having more than double California’s homicide rates, a critical question arises: Why isn’t the same urgency applied to Republican-led states with comparable or higher crime rates? Analysts suggest the answer is straightforward: Trump is crafting a narrative portraying Democrats as lenient on crime, while also targeting cities led by his political opponents. Let’s examine the data.
Suggested Reading
While the conversation sparked after a series of head-turning tweets from Governor Gavin Newsom accusing some red states of having more than double California’s homicide rates, it certainly begs the question: why isn’t the same urgency applied to Republican-led states with comparable or higher crime rates? Well, analyst say the answers are clear: He’s creating a narrative that Democrats are soft on crime, but also he is focused on cities of his adversaries Let’s look at the numberts.
According to World Population Review’s murder rates by state in 2023, California stood at 4.95 per 100,000 people, while red states like Alabama and Louisiana tower far over those numbers at 10.3 and 14.5. States like Nevada (6.82) and Arizona (5.95) also report higher homicide rates than California, yet they haven’t been singled out for federal intervention. This raises questions about consistency in addressing crime, and whether political alignment plays a role in which areas receive the most aggression—I mean… attention (clears throat).
Red State Murder Rates
With all the flack Democrats take for crime, you’d be shocked to know that the stats say otherwise, according to Third Way. The national think tank and advocacy organization conducted a study in 2023, and found that red states had significantly higher crime rates than blue states every year from 2000 to 2020. To be clear, over the course of two decades, red state’s crime rates were 23% higher, and information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data reported similar outcomes from 2021 and 2022, per the outlet.
Within the 25 states that voted for President Donald Trump, those murder rates surpassed the rates reported for states who voted for Joe Biden, again ever year between 2000 and 2020, per Third Way. However, according to experts, the details could be a bit more complex than the numbers alone.
The Manhattan Institute Conclusion
The conversation surrounding who has the higher crime rate amongst red and blue cities has gone on for decades, and according to the Manhattan Institute, that’s not the best way to handle the reality behind the numbers. Their analysis concludes that it’s easy to “change the conclusion by manipulating the data,” in simple ways.
“If we look at the county level, Democratic areas seem particularly murder-ridden; but when we look at the state level, Republican states are clearly more violent. Casual consumers of empirical social science research often fail to appreciate all the ways in which researchers can manipulate the data to say whatever they want,” researchers at Manhattan Institute George J. Borjas, and Robert VerBruggen stated.
The Data As it Stands
The CDC has published as of August 2025 that deaths by homicide per 100,000 total population, age adjusted, are lead by Alabama (14.8), Louisiana (19.3), and Mississippi (19.4)—all red states. As California reportedly sits at 5.1, Alabama indeed towers over that metric, with homicide rates approximately 190% higher.
Blue states have seemingly become an easy target, however there’s a lot of work to be done with crime rates in red states as well, per reports. That being said, we’re not seeing the same response. One can’t help but wonder, if red states were held to the same standard as blue states, would Republican leaders keep that same energy?
Straight From 
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