First people were saying that the Republicans were going to take the White House in 2012. Candidates like former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney have been touted as candidates who could take down President Barack Obama. In the words of John Wayne, "Not so fast, pilgrim." Now the New York Times is reporting that based on the facts at hand right now, Obama is likely to win the 2012 election in a landslide. That is the prediction of Ray C. Fair, a Yale economist and an expert on econometrics and on the relationship between economics and politics.

The state of the economy — which includes the wealth effect produced by rising and falling asset prices — has a dominant influence on national elections. While updating his 2002 book, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, he calculated his first prediction for the next national election and posted it on his Yale website. He says the likely outcome is an Obama victory, regardless of whom he runs against. "If my model’s right, it couldn't look better for Obama," he says. Hope springs eternal. In the words and voice of Michael Buffer, "Let's get ready to rumble."

Read more at the New York Times.