Experts: Why Americans Should Be Paying Very Close Attention to Trump’s Economy

In his second term, President Donald Trump has gone by his own rules when it comes down to the economy. Between his unprecedented international tariffs and the stock market’s knee-jerk reactions to Trump’s ongoing immigration mandate, even economic experts are struggling to make sense of exactly what’s happening.

And then there’s the firing of Erika McEntarfer, the former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Trump claimed the statistics under McEntarfer’s leadership showed a decline in the labor market and were “RIGGED.” With all that’s going on with the economy, economic experts sat down with the New York Times to try to explain everything. But according to them, the math ain’t mathing — and it seems that’s exactly what Trump wants.

“The president appears to think that the official numbers are a political liability if they show weakness,” macroeconomist and professor N. Gregory Mankiw said. It’s still too early to know how Trump’s policies will impact Americans in the long run. But with fears of a recession and ongoing trade wars, the professor said things could get too big for the president to try to control the narrative.

“There would be whistle-blowers,” he continued, suggesting that if Trump tried to taint future statistics to swing in his favor, economists will be forced to tell the truth. The public’s perception may be a different story, however. “I wonder whether the general public would pay enough attention to care,” Mankiw said. “The Trump administration has shown a willingness to do the previously unthinkable.”

Many fear Trump’s nominee to replace McEntarfer, Erwin Antoni, will be just another yes-man willing to submit to the president’s agenda by any means. Antoni currently serves as the chief economist for The Heritage Foundation. He also contributed to Project 2025– which Trump continues to deny being a part of.

As it stands now, Mankiw said, “the economy is OK, but not great. Inflation is still above target.” Consumer prices were up 2.7 percent from this time last year, according to a Labor Department report. The White House has since claimed inflation “remains low and stable,” but experts predict inflation could cause massive damage to the rest of Trump’s term.

Another expert, former Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Labor Betsey Stevenson, told the New York Times the biggest issue right now is understanding where the cracks in Trump’s economy are stemming from. “Whether lower job growth reflects lower labor demand or lower labor supply because of the administration’s efforts to deport immigrants and discourage new immigrants,” Stevenson said.

“It’s more than tariffs,” she continued. “And these are big uncertainties to make decisions under, and one thing we know about decision-making under uncertainty is that more uncertainty increases the option value of waiting.”

What’s more interesting, according to Stevenson, is the silence from Republicans who traditionally are more invested and outspoken about the U.S. economy. “It used to be the progressives who were willing to throw markets under the bus in order to accomplish their goals,” she continued. Instead, it’s the GOP allowing Trump to manipulate the economy for his own agenda.

That’s when Professor Mankiw responded, “Betsey, I think we have learned that politicians like re-election more than they like good policy.” He continued, “Trump has held the primary process over the heads of many Republican legislators who should, and probably do, know better.”