Why Trump’s Potential Cuba Overthrow Paints a Grim Picture for its Black Residents

Cuba and the Caribbean Sea are practically the only things separating the U.S. from Venezuela. After successfully dethroning Venezuela’s president on Jan. 3, President Donald Trump said he’s shifting his sights to Cuba; in a country with a sharp political and social divide between its white and Black residents, the latter would likely suffer the most from a U.S. overthrow.

Fresh off the Maduro capture, Trump has already said he doesn’t believe Cuba has what it takes to put up a fight if one came to its doorstep.

“I think it’s just going to fall,” the president said of Cuba on Sunday (Jan. 4). “I don’t think we need any action. Looks like it’s going down. It’s going down for the count.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio — born to Cuban immigrants — shared a similar sentiment, adding that the Cuban government is “in a lot of trouble” now.

Thing is, Rubio ideologically, politically and physically represents many of the Cuban immigrants who side with Trump. In fact, 58 percent of Cuban registered voters lean towards the Republican Party, according to a 2020 Pew Research study. Many, if not most, of those Cubans are white and reside in Miami-Dade County, having historically been provided asylum in the U.S. after fleeing Cuba under President Fidel Castro’s communist rule in the 20th century.

In contrast, the Afro-Cubans are historically more likely to stay in the country, live in extreme poverty and have lower salaries than other ethnic groups while being subjected to police brutality and deteriorating infrastructure, according to the Washington Post. Afro-Cubans officially make 11 percent of the population, but that number is much larger thanks to self-identification — or a Cuban resident’s refusal to identify as solely Black. Add the Cubans who identify as mixed-race and that number climbs closer to 30 percent.

“I’m not going to talk to you about what our future steps are going to be and our policies are going to be right now in this regard,” Rubio said to NBC News. “But I don’t think it’s any mystery that we are not big fans of the Cuban regime, who, by the way, are the ones that were propping up Maduro.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s second term policies have ended traditional protections and led to widespread uncertainty and the deportation of thousands of Afro-Cubans.

In truth, Maduro’s capture has sent a terrifying message to Cuba, Venezuela’s close ally and American adversary. For over 25 years, Venezuela maintained a close partnership with the island mostly because of Venezuela’s large oil supply and the countries’ political ties to socialism. The nations were so close that during the operation to seize Maduro and his wife, 32 members of the Cuban armed forces and intelligence agencies were killed, according to the Cuban government.

Until his capture, Maduro had heavily relied on Cuban bodyguards in light of Trump’s continuous threats. Now, the country of Cuba is at a crossroads. Cuba’s allegiance to socialism and economic drama has led to a tense political relationship with the U.S. over the years. With Venezuela — for now — out of the picture, Trump theoretically can explicitly target Cuba.

There are hundreds of American political prisoners sitting in Cuban prison. Insiders believe part of Trump’s plan is to pressure the country to release the prisoners — but the jury is still out on whether this strategy will work.

Trump also announced plans to take over Venezuelan oil which would more than likely result in cutting off an economic lifeline for Cuba. The country has relied on oil from Venezuela to fuel its economy for decades. And according to Cuba Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, Maduro’s overthrow “places us in a critical existential dilemma for our survival as nation states and independent, sovereign nations.”