Three Reasons ‘Sinners’ Will Fight An Uphill Battle at the Oscars

While the Oscars potential Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” appears to be promising thanks to the recently released shortlists, it’s still likely going to face an uphill battle to bring home the gold. If you don’t believe us, then believe the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences (the organization behind the Oscars) and their history of deeply undervaluing Black stories and the artists who bring them to life.

The Oscars Rarely Award Horror Films for Best Picture

While you could make the argument “Sinners” falls in is much more than just a horror film, you’d be ignorant to completely ignore the explicit villain (Remmick, the vampire) and the implicit one (racism in the Jim Crow South era). That being the case then, it begs examination into that type of film’s usual performance at the Oscars.

Throughout the prestigious awards show’s near 100-year history, only seven horror films have ever been nominated for the top prize of Best Picture. Those include: “Black Swan,” “Get Out,” “Jaws,” “The Exorcist,” “The Sixth Sense,” “The Substance” and “Silence of the Lambs.” The latter film was the only to take home the gold.

Taking that into consideration, “Sinners’” odds at a nomination are somewhat positive given it’s cultural and critical acclaim, but it will run into a huge problem due to the other highly acclaimed films and contenders, like “One Battle After Another,” “Marty Supreme,” Train Dreams” and others when it comes to actually winning. Sprinkle in the fact that out of all seven horror movies that have previously been nominated, only one of them were helmed by a Black director, and you’ve also just added another barrier to the win.

That brings us to our next point.

The Oscars Has Never Given a Black Person a Best Director Win

In addition to the Academy rarely ever giving horror films the flowers they deserve, the organization has also seemed to have a blind spot when it comes to nominating and awarding Black directors. Again, out of the nearly 100 years the awards show has been a thing–only six Black directors have ever been nominated: Spike Lee, the late John Singleton, Lee Daniels, Steve McQueen, Barry Jenkins, and Jordan Peele. (If you were expecting to see Ryan Coogler’s name on there for “Black Panther,” you won’t because he got snubbed that year and it was an entire ordeal). What’s more is that McQueen is the only Black person to get nominated for Best Director and lose, though he won Best Picture for “12 Years A Slave” in 2014.

Similarly, when it comes to the Best Actor category at the Oscars, there have only been five Black actors to take home the coveted gold statuette: Will Smith, Sidney Poitier, Denzel Washington, Jamie Foxx, and Forest Whitaker. Culturally and numerically, Jordan’s filmography has reaped positive results. His trajectory from child actor to starring critically acclaimed films (“Fruitvale Station”), blockbuster hits (“Black Panther”) , leading a successful cult-classic spin off franchise (“Creed”) to now pulling impressive double duty in a genre-bending film (“Sinners”)–should make him a no brainer when it comes to the nomination. But if past is prologue, then Coogler and Jordan’s chances once again to secure a nomination and an eventual win are slimmer than we’d like them to be.

The Oscars’ Pattern of Under-recognition for Black Projects and Storytellers Makes the Playing Field Uneven

Additionally, it’s only been 11 years since activist April Reign coined the hashtag #OscarsSoWhite after all 20 acting nominees were white–an unfortunate pattern that repeated again in 2016 and sparked a global backlash against the Academy’s lack of diversity. That movement exposed systemic issues within an organization, whose voting body had long been overwhelmingly white and male, which did a disservice at holistically considering which films, performances, and genres are deemed “Oscar-worthy.”

Though the Academy pledged reforms and expanded its membership as a result of that–bringing in more women and people of color within its fold–progress has remained uneven. So when it comes to “Sinners,” its shortlist momentum will have to sadly pull off a David vs. Goliath type of victory in the coming months as awards season continues to unfold due to the Academy’s history of failing to fully reward Black stories.

Nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced on January 22, 2026 with the live awards show sent to be held on March 15.