Experts: Why Polls Can’t Predict The Black Vote

At the end of the day, Black Americans just want to know who is going to win. But even though election polls, like the recent one from The New York Times poll with Sienna, can be helpful pieces in completing the presidential puzzle, experts say there’s still more to the story when the Black vote is this vital.

So the question is: Can election polls predict how Black folks will vote come election day? This race will come down to the grains of sand, and senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center, Scott Keeter, told The Root this only makes pollsters’ jobs harder. “In an electorate as closely divided as America is today, just a few percentage points can make the difference between having an accurate poll or not,” he said.

Keeter continued saying despite new efforts to ensure the validity of election polls, “there’s no real way to know if the changes that have been made are going to make a difference” in this election.

According to the Pew Research Center, the number of eligible Black voters has increased by seven percent from 2020. With this in mind, Democratic political advisor Antjuan Seawright said the Black vote is crucial: “Every time people have counted us [Black people] out, we always show them in the end that they don’t know how to count.”

Election polls have historically and consistently miscounted the Black vote. In 2020, the polls failed to account for the record number of Black men and women who would change the tide and win Biden the presidency. Before former President Barack Obama won the democratic nomination in 2008, some polls warned that Hilary Clinton would capture the Black vote over him.... and they were dead wrong.

Polls are changing constantly, and history shows they’re not the only determining factors in political decisions. Seawright predicts a flood of election polls— he calls the “pollcoaster”— will “see many twists and turns.”

Seawright agrees that polls don’t define the story, and although this race will come down to a jump ball decision, “the only poll that really matters is how well we show up on election day,” he told The Root.

So far, all we know for certain is Trump’s followers will likely stick and stay beside him regardless of the debate or his antics afterwards. Harris, on the other hand, needs to persuade uncertain voters to swing her way between now and November. Seawright labeled Harris as “the underdog,” and despite her quick campaign turnaround, “she has to work twice as hard to get half as much.” He continued saying “that’s our story as Black Americans in this country.”

Polls predict Harris will win the majority of Black vote come November, much like her democratic predecessors. And even though more women were polled to vote for Harris over Trump, journalist Don Lemon said we have to look at polls “with a grain of salt.”

In an exclusive interview with The Root, Lemon said polls only give a “snapshot in time.” As history shows, Lemon mentioned how “the polls said there was going to be a red wave over the last couple of elections, and that didn’t happen. It was the exact opposite.” He continued saying “the polls said Hillary Clinton was going to win, and she did not.”

Back in 2016, several polls put Clinton comfortably ahead of Trump, according to Vox, but we all know how that ended up. The best way to curve all of the uncertainty, Lemon says, is to simply control the narrative. “Republicans are better at messaging even when it’s not real,” he said, which is why the Sept. 10 debate will be crucial for Harris’ campaign.

But most of all, Lemon told The Root that Democrats need to start telling their story. He said “the economy is improving, gas prices are down, inflation numbers are going down.” With all this in mind, it’s just about convincing undecided voters that she’s the woman for the job.