Black Voters Fear Gentrification in NYC’s Monumental Mayoral Race

As New York City heads toward one of its most anticipated mayoral elections on Nov. 4, the issues most pressing to Black voters—including housing affordability, public safety, and political representation—are once again at the center of the debate.

After Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo for the Democratic nomination, Cuomo chose to stay in the race as an independent, setting up a three-way showdown with Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. It’s a contest that has exposed deep divides within the city’s Democratic base and among Black voters who could ultimately decide the outcome.

Mamdani, a progressive state assemblymember from Queens, has campaigned on a bold housing agenda, calling for universal rent control, stronger tenant protections, and an end to what he calls “real estate capture” of city politics. He supports expanding community land trusts and redirecting public funds away from luxury developments to affordable housing projects. On public safety, he has pushed for a “care over cops” approach—investing in mental health response teams, youth jobs, and social services rather than expanding the NYPD budget. 

While his ideas resonate with younger and left-leaning voters, some longtime Black residents say they’re unsure his policies will address immediate concerns around crime and displacement.

Cuomo, meanwhile, has positioned himself as the candidate of “experience and stability.” He has criticized Mamdani’s housing proposals as “unrealistic” and instead favors public-private partnerships to increase housing supply. On policing, Cuomo supports adding more officers to patrol high-crime neighborhoods, arguing that communities of color deserve safety “without apology.”

However, his record as governor—including clashes with criminal justice advocates—has left many skeptical. His campaign has focused heavily on restoring “competence” to City Hall, but critics say his approach caters more to corporate donors than working families.

Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels and a conservative talk radio host, has built his campaign on a law-and-order message, promising to “restore safety to the streets” by boosting NYPD funding and rolling back recent bail reform laws. He’s also called for tax incentives for developers to build affordable housing, though housing advocates note his plan lacks specifics.

Sliwa has polled poorly among Black voters, who overwhelmingly favor progressive or moderate Democratic candidates, but his message has gained traction among some outer-borough residents concerned about rising crime.

Despite the crowded field, polls show Mamdani with a lead—but analysts say that advantage could evaporate if he fails to energize Black voters, particularly in Brooklyn, Harlem, and the Bronx.

“Right now, the decisive vote could be the Black vote,” said Rev. Al Sharpton. “If two-thirds of the Black vote goes against you, it’d be very difficult to win in November.”

For many voters, the choice between the candidates reflects a broader question: will the next mayor tackle systemic inequality—or just manage it?