Earl Ofari Hutchinson argues in a piece at his blog that the NRA is poised to use its considerable influence to water down a gun control bill, holding out 2014 as a carrot for a number of GOP House members and senators who will be facing re-election campaigns in several conservative strongholds.
There are two other things that will make passage of the bill intact a close call. The first is how the NRA rates senators and congresspersons that buck it. It grades senators and congresspersons from A to F on their vote on gun legislation. Few, if any, GOP senators in years past have dared to risk bucking the NRA and back tougher gun control curbs. Since the expiration of the assault weapon ban in 2004, the nearly two dozen bills that have been introduced in the House and Senate to stiffen gun laws have all been defeated. In nearly every case, they did not even make it to the House or Senate floor for a vote.
The second problem is the 2014 mid-term elections. Though the NRA was hazy at first on whether it would give the senators that agreed to the background check compromise, a failing grade, or any grade, Heritage Action, the political arm of the Heritage Foundation, that opposes the compromise, said that it would grade senators on the legislation. The NRA now says that it will grade senators on their final vote on the bill. And with a number of GOP congresspersons and senators up for reelection in 2014, many in conservative strongholds, almost certainly their vote would be a campaign issue against them by a Tea Party backed challenger, and there will be challenges. Even to survive the challenge, they would have to spend tons of money, time, and energy, assuring one and all that they are not an avid foe of gun owners.
Read Earl Ofari Hutchinson's entire piece at the Hutchinson Report News.
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