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These Polls Ain’t Loyal: Why the Generic Congressional Ballot Is the Worst Predictor in American Politics

Nothing amuses me more as a political scientist than people who just don’t trust polls. The skepticism is usually brought on by incredulity about some type of polling analysis—“There’s no way black districts voted more Republican in 2016 than in 2012”—which is usually followed by some nonscientific justification for…

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