The Cook Political Report has released a new survey that reveals things have taken a drastic turn when it comes to the 2024 presidential election. The survey, which was conducted by the Democratic polling firm BSG and Republican polling firm GS Strategy Group, showed that Vice President Kamala Harris is tied or ahead of Donald Trump in six out of seven battleground states.
Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race last month, Trump was leading in those key states. Now, Harris leads Trump in Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. She is tied with Trump in Georgia and Nevada is the only battleground state that the former president still leads in, the poll found.
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As the previous Democratic nominee, Biden had trouble capturing Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. By default, his campaign relied heavily on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trump was leading Biden in six of the seven battleground states—and was tied with Biden for Wisconsin—as recently as May.
In the survey analysis, Cook Political Report publisher and editor-in-chief Amy Walter explained the phenomena. “In many ways, Harris is unburdened by what has been,” Walter stated.
“She is the sitting incumbent, yet 56% of battleground state voters say she represents a chance to ‘turn the page of the Trump/Biden era’ and 59% see her as representing a ‘new generation of leadership.’”
In addition, Harris possesses an even larger lead when it comes to third-party candidates—especially Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—which includes having 4-point lead in Arizona and 5-point leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The Cook Political Report survey was conducted among 2,867 likely voters throughout the seven swing states between from July 26 to Aug. 2. The survey contains a margin of error of plus or minus 1.83 percentage points.
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