As War in Iran Rages, How Much Higher Can Gas Prices Really Get?

(updated on 04/02/2026 @ 11:28 a.m.)

Americans are bracing for impact as the nation’s ongoing war in Iran continues to hike up gas and oil prices. As President Donald Trump keeps delaying the end date of the vastly unpopular military effort in the Middle East, Americans can only sit back and watch as the global oil market tumbles.

During a Wednesday (April 1) address to the nation, the president blamed rising gas prices on Iran. “Many Americans have been concerned to see the recent rise in gasoline prices here at home,” he said. “This short-term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict. This is yet more proof that Iran can never be trusted with nuclear weapons.”

A recent poll from Reuters and Ipsos found that 87 percent of Americans believe the price of gas will increase over the next few weeks… and they might be on to something. Trump’s attacks in Iran prompted the Middle Eastern nation to completely close off the Straight of Hormuz, which controls 20 percent of the world’s oil. As Iran’s grip on natural oil tightens, Americans will ultimately feel the burn.

Gasoline prices are up in every state since the Iran war began on the final day of February, according to AAA’s average fuel prices. Specifically in states like Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan, residents have reported at least an $1 per gallon price increase. In urban cities like Los Angeles, prices have reached nearly $9— a far cry from the president’s promise to bring down grocery and gas prices on “day one” of his second term.

America is still recovering from devastating inflation sparked mostly by the COVID-19 pandemic. But just as it seemed the U.S. economy was beginning to stabilize, the Iran war offers little promise of a return to pre-COVID rates. Now, rising gas prices have the potential to shock the country.

For those who weren’t around, Americans found themselves in a similar predicament during former President George W. Bush’s war in the Middle Eastern countries of Iraq and Afghanistan. As gas prices rose in direct response to the 2001 conflict, Americans lined up in droves to stock up on gasoline.

Now, 20 years have passed since then, but if those COVID-19 lines taught us anything, it’s that folks are always prepared to panic buy. Trump’s new war could prompt a mass buy-out of gasoline nationwide, which will also rev up prices.

The Trump administration is trying to mitigate the damage, however, by releasing over 170 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to counter surging gas prices. Still, without Iran’s oil supply– or access to the Strait of Hormuz– nothing will prevent prices from skyrocketing, The New York Times reported.

So how much higher can we expect gas prices to go? It simply depends on how long the war lasts and which country declares more military victories. To help push the U.S. forward, the Pentagon is seeking $200 billion more from Congress to fund the Iran war, which suggests the American effort against the largest military in the Middle Eastern region isn’t going according to schedule.