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The Senate’s newest Democrat is likely to cause his new party as much anguish as he caused his old one.
Arlen Specter likes it when he’s described as the best lawyer in the Senate; there are a lot of lawyers in its chambers. Specter, 79, particularly enjoys his reputation as someone who will go wherever the facts lead. This is the man, after all, who served as chief counsel of the Warren Commission, which investigated the assassination of President Kennedy, and it was Arlen Specter, more than anyone else, who devised the controversial theory that a single bullet killed the 35th president.
And it was Specter, who, following the facts, suggested that the commission depose President Johnson in the assassination probe on the reasonable theory that, as Kennedy’s vice president, Johnson had as much to gain by the president’s murder as anyone, and therefore, should have been treated as a suspect. That deposition never happened, but Specter was proud that he tried because that is what the facts demanded.
So as shocking as it is that Specter, now serving his fifth term in the Senate as a Republican from Pennsylvania, would switch parties, a clear-eyed examination of the facts may have made his decision inevitable. The facts are these. Arlen Specter is, above all, a survivor; there is no room in the new Republican Party for a politician as maddeningly unpredictable as Specter; by joining the Democratic Party, he is simply following the moderate swing voters who have been, and remain, the key to his success at the polls. Since he was elected to a fifth term in 2004, 239,000 Republicans and independents in Pennsylvania have switched to the Democratic Party. Facts are facts.
It was clear that Specter could not win the Republican primary in Pennsylvania next year against the man he defeated in 2004, former Congressman Pat Toomey. In his home base of Philadelphia and its suburbs, the number of registered Republicans have decreased by 85,000 since 2004. The party which chose him as its nominee in 2004 no longer exists in Pennsylvania or, frankly, anywhere else in the country. It is a party that is contracting ideologically, geographically and in raw numbers.
“Since my election in 1980 … the Republican Party has moved far to the right,” Specter said in announcing the switch. “I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans.”
The Big Tent Republican Party that made it possible to elect centrist Republicans like Specter is a thing of the past. He is the last of the breed that once included Mark Hatfield and Bob Packwood of Oregon, Nancy Kassebaum of Kansas, Jacob Javits of New York, Warren Rudman of New Hampshire, William Cohen of Maine, Lowell Weicker of Connecticut and Paul Laxalt of Nevada.
They were called Rockefeller Republicans, so named as a tribute to Nelson Rockefeller, the former vice president and governor of New York who in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s gave the political brand its credibility. Almost 30 years of Reaganism, capped by the last eight years of George Bush’s undiscerning conservatism, has effectively killed the brand. Specter won his first election—for Philadelphia district attorney as the GOP nominee—while still registered as a Democrat.
He defected to the GOP for 40 years, and in order to survive, he had no choice but to switch back.
Despite its continuing status as a swing state, Pennsylvania has been a solidly blue state for more than 20 years. George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to carry it in a presidential election. The key to the Democratic victories has been the overwhelming turnout among Democrats in Philadelphia, and lately, in its suburbs. Running as a Democrat from Philadelphia is now a huge advantage. Specter was not at all coy about his plans to appeal to the overwhelmingly black Democratic voters of Philadelphia. He told reporters yesterday that President Obama said he would come to Pennsylvania to campaign for him.
Much has already been made of the fact that Specter could give the Democrats the 60th vote they need to rebuff Republican filibusters, and therefore be able to pass any legislation they want. But that is to misread and underestimate the orneriness of Arlen Specter. “I will not be an automatic 60th vote,” he said and proceeded to disappoint Democrats right out of the gate on an issue of crucial importance to them: “I would illustrate that by my position on employee's choice, also known as card check.”
Specter will clearly have to make nice with Democratic voters, and that will involve making nice with their president. But Specter, remember, is a man of exquisite political irascibility. He will go out of his way to find ways to assure voters that he is his own man. Getting along is not his way of going along. He did not vote guilty or not guilty in the Clinton impeachment trial; he is the only senator on record not to have chosen one of those two options. Instead, he invoked Scottish law and voted “not proven.”
If there is a hint of opportunism in Specter’s action, it is worth remembering that it has worked for him thus far. He is the first Pennsylvania senator to be elected to a fifth term since the introduction of direct election of U.S. senators in 1913. Pennsylvania voters, unlike say West Virginians, tend to get bored with their senators after a while. Somehow, Specter has survived that and worse—a brain tumor, heart bypass surgery, Hodgkin’s lymphoma. So a little partisan disadvantage—OK, huge partisan disadvantage—is hardly likely to stop him now. That’s just a fact.
Terence Samuel is deputy editor of The Root.
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Dear Smooth ............ It appears from your ranting that you are not as much pro-Specter as you seem to be anti-America. However, good riddance and good luck to Arlen. I'm sure that he will fit right in with Nancy Pelosi, Barbara Boxer, and Dianne Feinstein. I lived in San Francisco when they, along with Roger Dellums, blocked the U.S. Navy's plan to make make that city the home port of the USS Missouri. How patriotic! I'm sure that a history buff such as you must have heard that Big Mo was the battleship upon which General Douglas MacArthur received the articles from the Japanese that ended World War II (I think that it was in most of the papers at that time). Arlen will also be welcomed by Christopher Dodd and Barney Frank - two great financial geniuses (how's your 401K Smooth?) and the new up-and-coming look of the party Al (the comedian) Franken.
Sorry, I'm getting off of the subject (Arlen).
You mentioned "excessive bail"; Ira Einhorn was to be tried for murdering his ex girlfriend and keeping her in a trunk in his apartment for 18 months - yes, a year and a half! Arlen had a judge reduce his bail to $40,000 for first degree murder, among other charges, and a bleeding heart Canadian socialite put up the necessary $4,000. Goodbye Ira! When he was finally caught in Europe years later, guess who sided with the French to fight his extradition? You got it; the esteemed Senator from Pennsylvania.
You are welcome to him but please don't try to send him back!
PhillyJim, really? I need to "Read the newspapers sometime"? And you need to read a history book. And read it in a way that you discern how history influences popular culture, and how popular culture, in turn, influences behavior.
When things were going OK in America, Arlen Specter was a Dem. During the 60's, when America was becoming more radicalized, mostly due to the Viet Nam War, people started seeing America as becoming more and more lawless, and thus Specter turned Republican on us. The Republicans said that they would return America to law and order and so, because he's pro death penalty, and you don't get much more law and order than that, Specter turned Republican. Now that Republicans have turned America into a junk yard, he goes Dem again.
That only shows me that he's practical and will go along with a set of ideas that he feels will do the American people the most good. and not impale himself to a failed set of polcies.
Don't go away, I'll be right back.
PhillyJim,you're right, my bad. Arlen Specter respects a woman's right to choose, but adds that he's personally against abortion. However, I'm going to stand on everything else I posted, especially on how I feel that he does his own thing:
* Democrat from about 1948 - 1965.
* Republican from 1966 - 2009.
* Back to Democrat from April 28, 2009 - present.
Again, that only goes to show me that he goes with his conscience rather than adhere himself to a right wing dogma that has turned America into a junk yard.
1948 - 1965: America is still basically culturally conservative; this Ozzie and Harriett, Father Knows Best, Leave It To Beaver type of thing.
!966: Having to do with the Viet Nam War more than anything else, America slowly starts to become more radicalized. People see this as America becoming more lawless and rapidly turning into a nation of "commie-pinko's", as Archie Bunker used to say. Because Arlen Specter is pro death penalty, which shows how pro law and order he is, it only stands to reason that he went Republican on us; the Republican Party began to run on a platform of returning America to law and order. Pretty soon, America elected Richard Nixon because he advertised himself as standing for those very principles.
Begining with Ronald Reagan, the rich start getting richer and the poor start getting poorer. It all culminates the the recent financial meltdown brought about by the financial community's greed and a do-nothing president, a la Hertbert Hoover. Arlen Specter now turns Democrat again.
Again, that doesn't satisfy me as to him being a flip-flopper. That only shows me that he's practical and will go along with a set of ideas that he feels with do the American people the most good. I need to " Read the news papers sometime ", you say? Maybe so. But, I will also say this: you need to read a history book. And not only just read the darn thing, but also discern how history influences our popular culture and how, in turn, that popular culture influences people's behavior. And while you're at it, also read the 8th Amendment of our Constitution; it states that "Excessive bail should not be required...". How much bail is "Excessive"? I don't know; the 8th Amendment doesn't define that. And please don't waste your time by giving me a slew of court cases that purport to define "Excessive" 'cause I couldn't care less about a judge's opinion if it was going to save my life! And that goes triple for anyone else's opinion too.
Appearently, the people of the state of Pennsylvania feel that any amount of bail is too high and thus require only 10% to be put up for someone to walk. So when Arlen Specter got a reduction on Ira Einhorn's ( The Unicorn Killer ) bail, he did it so that Einhorn could hurry up and skip town, right? Riigghhtt!
Dear Smooth Thug ............. Read the newspapers sometime; Specter IS NOT and never has been anti abortion. Pro death penalty? Ok for newborns but not for the likes of Ira Einhorn. Specter was a prosecuter in Philly prosecuting bad guys who then decided that there was more money in defending bad guys. He arranger low bail for a first degree suspect (Ira) who murdered his girl friend Holly and then kept her in a trunk in his apartment. Ira took advantage of the low bail and skipped town to become the Toast of France and Europe. So much for flip-flopping. He also flipped from the Democratic Party to the Republicans and now is flopping back to the Demos because it is more favorable to his career. Is Arlen thinking of Arlen or of the people? Yeah, I thought so!
For the last 8 years, they've basically used it as toilet paper. This mythical conservative should try reading it first. As for Spector, he's more trouble than he's worth.
As the nation, like a bunch of lemmings, went sliding into the Blackhole called Reaganism, Arlen Specter stood his ground in the middle of the road. Here's a short compendium of his career:
* He opposed the Supreme Court nomination of that space alien, Robert Bork, in 1987. Republicans fumed.
* When Clarence Thomas was going through his own Supreme Court nomination hearings, Anita Hill stepped forward to make it known that he ( Clarence Thomas ) had approached her in a sexually inappropriate manner. Arlen Specter grilled her in an especially agressive way. Republicans were giddy.
* In 1998 and 1999, he berated his fellow Republicans for trying to impeach Bill Clinton.
Let's move ahead.
* Arlen Specter cosponsored the Equal Justice fro United States Military Personnel Act of 2007. This would have given our militay personnel, while on active duty, equal access to the Supreme Court. It was blocked by Lindsey Graham of South Carolina... a Republican, of course.
* Always been pro death penalty.
* Always been anti abortion.
* Alway been anti gun control.
* But here's what drew the the condemnation of Republicans: he voted in favor of President Obama's stimulus package.
To me, he doesn't sound like he's uncommitted, or like he flip-flops, or anything like that. He sounds like he's a moderate; like he does his own thing. He left the Republican Party? Actually, it sounds like the Republican Party left him; it left him out there in the middle of the road as it careens, rudderless, into extremism.
Spector was a liability not an asset. We need to get rid of more of his ilk if we are to get the party back on the right track. Lets get a real conservative in there, one who understaands the constitution and what has made this country great. Spector understood neither. All of the people who contributed to his campaign should demand their money back or sue him as a fraud.
Let the Dems have him........He should do the Senate a favor and retire.
Benedict Arlen has committed political suicide. Republicans won't help or support him any more, and Democrats have no reason to trust him or vote for him. Specter is almost 80 years old, he has no life left to reinvent himself. If Pennsylvanians are smart, and I have every confidence they are, they will fire Specter and hire someone with integrity.