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It's not time to worry yet, Dems. If Tuesday's elections tell us anything, it is that things can change drastically in the course of a year.
The text message from my Democratic operative friend popped up on my BlackBerry at exactly 10:19 p.m., just as it was becoming clear that Jon Corzine was not going to be re-elected governor of New Jersey.
Bloodbath! That's all the message said. Later, said operative noted with deepening despair that Democrats were even losing in Westchester County, N.Y. All in all, it was a bad night for Democrats, and as the top Democrat in the land, it was a bad night for Barack Obama, too. But that’s as far as it goes.
This was no referendum on the Obama presidency, and his popularity numbers continue to show that. It was, on some level, a test of how well the Obama coalition would hold up a year after it pulled off the stunning feat of electing a black, freshman senator with an African name to the presidency of the United States. But it was always a hard ask for a coalition, built so much on excitement, to hold together for Jon Corzine in New Jersey or Creigh Deeds in Virginia, who together, are not as exciting as watching paint dry.
Still, this is hardly the time for Democrats to despair. The GOP wins contain their own simple parable; 2009 is not 2008; 2010 will not be 2009.
Republicans have every right to be jubilant about Tuesday’s results. It was a good night for them. They have not had one of those politically since 2004 when George W. Bush won a second term and then spent the next four years driving his party off the cliff. As they say at the racetrack at the end of a long losing streak, “They were due.”
But it’s hard to make the case that Tuesday's result are predictive of the 2010 midterms, unless, of course, Democrats buy into the notion that Republicans have now suddenly acquired some “momentum” based on public apprehension about President Obama and his policies. There is a name for that kind of Democratic buy-in; it's called Creigh-Deeds-ism, and it will get you shellacked, as Deeds was in Virginia on Tuesday.
The bottom line is this: If the president is not able to make the case next summer that the economy is improving and that the job markets have started to bounce back, voters are going to have to take it out on somebody, and since Barack Obama is not on the ticket, any Democrat will do.
If the economy is doing better and Republicans continue to offer no alternatives to the president's proposals—which they so vehemently oppose—they are likely to be disappointed. The high-profile Democratic losses on Tuesday had as much to do with the personal disadvantages of the individual Democrats than with some nascent rehabilitation of the Republican Party.
In New Jersey, Jon Corzine has had disapproval rating in the mid-50s since the summer of 2008, long before Barack Obama was president. And in Virginia, Creigh Deeds never could explain what he wanted to do as governor—except distance himself from some of Obama's policies.
Are there warning signs in Tuesday’s results for Democrats? Certainly. The big loss among Independents could mean trouble next year. Or it could be that people who called themselves independent in 2008 decided to pick the better candidates in 2009, candidates who just happen to be Republican. For everyone on the ballot next year, that's the real takeaway: Be the better candidate.
Democrats already have a model in the White House.
Terence Samuel is deputy editor of The Root. Follow him on Twitter.
Comments
According to some recent polls, some Independent voters are shying away from the Democrats. Why? As Bill Clinton would say, "It's the economy, Stupid!"
Some polls are already showing Independent voters shying away from Democrats.Why? As Bill Clinton would say, "It's the economy, Stupid!"
...the rethuglikkkans typically do better in off-year elections b'cuz they (and apparently the "candidates", themselves) aren't az sexy az presidential election yearz.
Nuthin' new there, son...so go apply yer spin elsewhere.
HTTP://theblackwhole.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/rebel-ghetto-messiah/
--TBW
Incumbents in general, and democrats in particular, are going to face a blood bath next November. Bambam is a child who was elected on media hype and anti-Bush sentiment. He has taken that 7 point win as a mandate to march America down the path of socialism, and that will fail miserably every time. Couple the frightening far-left drivel with a Republican party that is sweeping out the rinos, and you're going to see a massively energized Republican base plus a lot of disgusted moderates vs. the small far-left and clueless black constituencies. That equals huge democrat losses.
There have been 8 year terms for both parties for several elections now. The Republicans have had the power at times and the Democrats have had the power at other times. So it's safe to say that everyone has had their shot at improving the state of the union. Each side claims to be the true will of the people and each side believes they know best.
So why is Social Security broke? Why is the US Post Office broke? Why is Medicare broke? Why is Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac broke? And why are we trillions of dollars in debt while losing jobs by the millions? Why do our taxes keep going up while the quality of service keeps going down?
GM, Chrysler, AIG, and several other companies went bankrupt due to faulty business practices that were actually better than what the Feds are doing.
If the Federal government was a private business, they would have been in junk bond status 20 years ago and totally non-existent today.
Once those big ol government doors close and the public is safely on the outside, you won't hear much from them unless there's money for their pocket involved. As the man said earlier, it's party time tonight. Drinks are on the taxpayers.
Just MHO
And still nothing changes in Washington.....same old same old.
They'll all be at the party tonight.....drinks are on us.
Like the song says, "Don't believe the Hype"-but the problem is, too many DO believe the Hype! Democratic "leadership" has allowed the GOP to dominate the discussion on every political issue since the Inauguration-health care reform, the TARP bailouts, the auto industry takeover-at no time, did the Democratic leadership take a strong position, in opposition to the Republicans! At no time, has Rahm Emmanuel, or any of the so-called team of opposites strongly defending President Obama's positions on anything. Then we have these jive "blue dog" Democrats, who are nothing but Republicans in disguise, fighting the President, and other democrats on every issue!
People don't want to believe the hype, they want to support the President, but when our elected officials, who call themselves Democrats, don't ever, ever speak up and respond to the Glenn Becks, the Rush Limpbags, and the Joe Wilson's in a manner that substantially silences the opposition, it's hard not to believe the Hype!
I know the GOP is full of it, but I'm not so sure that people who voted for President Obama GET that to stay on the winning side, you have to be vocal, you have to continue to be involved, and you can't just go hide in a hole when the opposition says something you don't like!
Don't worry- compared to the whuppin the Democrats are going to get in 2010, this little skirmish in nothing.
too much hype is not good.
...Re: ALL yer statementz.
SCHOOL thoze children.
= )
--TBW
Yes...da Black/Blaq IZ BACK!...b'cuz CENSORSHIP sux:
HTTP://theblackwhole.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/rebel-ghetto-messiah/