A Matter of Faith: Black Voters and the GOP
Black social conservatives are there for the taking if Republicans send the right message.
Newt Gingrich (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
On Super Tuesday, Republican voters get a chance to stand up for the candidate they believe in. But do black voters feel they have the same range of choices as white voters? African Americans are a bit of a paradox: arguably socially conservative on the issues, but loyal to the Democratic Party.
"I think it's a phenomenon that's interestingly linked to the African-American community," said Republican strategist Ron Christie, a former special assistant to President George W. Bush. "Many self-described liberals or progressives are actually very socially conservative once they break the issues down one by one."
He adds, "If you look at my family, my folks are progressives -- except when you start delving into same-sex marriage or premarital sex or you deal with religion. They're not nearly as liberal as they think they are, but they would describe themselves that way."
With 10 states and 419 delegates in play (18 additional superdelegates are in play but not tied to the results), Super Tuesday marks a turning point in the presidential race. GOP pollsters are doing the election math, but so are the president's supporters. A surprisingly volatile Republican primary has caused some Democrats to not-so-secretly cheer on Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, who both poll less favorably against President Obama than front-runner Mitt Romney.
Santorum, in particular, has fought his campaign on the grounds that he's a deeper social conservative than anyone else in the race. His ability to blend personal and political narrative is undisputed, though not necessarily in the ways he'd like. Santorum is a conservative Catholic who said that President Obama espoused "phony theology," and that when he read President John F. Kennedy's speech in support of separation of church and state, he "almost threw up."
His candidacy is a perfect example of the different strains of conservatism and how they play with black voters. On the one hand, many African Americans affirm conservative positions on issues including abortion, in part because of the strong influence of black churches.
But few would endorse the ways that Santorum, Gingrich and Romney have doubled down on the rhetoric of government dependency, a not-so-subtle Southern strategy. (Gingrich even coined a new phrase, the "food stamp president.") Black voters who are social conservatives are often given a menu of candidates who use coded racial rhetoric to court white voters.
Given that, could black social conservatives play a crucial role in the 2012 election? Let's do a little math. In 2008, 96 percent of black voters chose Barack Obama, versus 4 percent for John McCain. In 2004, by comparison, 11 percent of African Americans voted Republican. The rush of pride and good will that helped usher Obama into office has dulled for some voters over the past four economically rocky years.
Although the president leads all GOP challengers in the current polls and still has an enormously high favorability rating from black voters, the impact of the black vote in 2012 will depend not only on whom voters select but also on the turnout. One way the Republican Party could gain in 2012 versus 2008 is if black social conservatives who voted for President Obama in 2008 peel away and return to the GOP fold. Another way is if people conflicted over their choices (or disappointed in them) simply don't vote.