Keys to Obama's Keystone Loss
April 23, 2008 --How Pennsylvania was lost. Five reasons why Barack couldn't defeat Hillary.
As most experts predicted, Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama in Tuesday's Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Given his recent resurgence in momentum, however, many believed that Obama could close the gap to a respectable 5 or 6 percent. Instead, Clinton garnered a commanding 9.2 percent victory that will justify her extended stay in the increasingly volatile primary election. Although it is highly unlikely that Obama will lose the nomination, his inability to put Clinton away places his presidential run and the immediate future of the Democratic Party in serious peril.
Why couldn't Barack seal the deal? Here are the top five reasons:
The Debates
Seven days before the election, 1-in-5 Pennsylvania voters remained undecided; 58 percent of them ultimately voted for Hillary Clinton. A key factor in this outcome was last week's Democratic primary debate. Unlike the twenty contests that preceded it, last week's debate paid considerable attention to Barack Obama's recent scandals, flubs, and foibles. By spending most of the first hour discussing everything from flag pins to Bill Ayers, Clinton and her comrades at ABC successfully painted Barack Obama as an unknown and dangerous entity. This, combined with the remaining racial anxieties surrounding Jeremiah Wright, played a considerable role in swaying still-undecided voters.
Key Endorsements
Given the Clintons' deep ties to the Democratic Party elite, Hillary was able to secure key Pennsylvania endorsements early in the race. In particular, Governor Ed Rendell (also the most popular mayor in Philadelphia history) and Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Ravenstahl served as powerful surrogates who helped to shore up Hillary Clinton's base in the Western part of the state. Philadelphia's new African American mayor, Michael Nutter (whom Obama did not endorse in the local mayoral race in favor of Rep. Chaka Fattah) helped to keep Obama's Philadelphia victory within an acceptable margin.
Barack's Lack of Street Smarts
In Philadelphia, Democratic candidates help to mobilize election day voters by paying "street money" to local operatives in order to get out the vote. This strategy, which is perfectly legal, is a tried and true method of getting the city's 3000 committeepersons to hit the block running. Citing philosophical and moral reasons, Obama elected to rely upon his unpaid volunteers rather than spending the half-million dollars that it would take to stimulate the local political economy. Although Barack won the city by 60 percent, he likely lost a sizeable chunk of voters due to his failure to feed the local Democratic machine. This decision not only reflects a failure to embrace the realpolitik --you think Hillary wouldn't have dropped some money on the block if she had the dough?— but also a deeper naïveté that could hurt him in November.
The Pennsyltucky Electorate
In order steal Pennsylvania from Hillary Clinton, Obama had to woo voters in the area known locally as "Pennsyltucky," or the region between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh where Southern-conservatism and deep racial and ethnic animus continue to inform public perception, policy, and practice. Unfortunately, as Obama argued in his infamous "bitter" remarks, Pennsyltucky residents often undermine their own material and political prosperity by voting their anxieties and fears rather than their interests. While the remarks themselves may have cost Obama a percentage point or two, they are merely symptoms of a larger problem. In addition to fetishizing wedge issues, Pennsyltuckyans also enjoy what Dubois referred to as "the psychic wages of whiteness," which allow them to close ranks around race rather than reason. Bottom line: poor white people don't want a black president.
Hillary's Working Girl Routine
Despite the razor thin differences between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama with regard to economic policy, neither of which propose adequate relief to the nation's laboring class, the majority of Pennsylvania's working class voters sided with Hillary. Pulling from the Republican handbook of painting liberal Democrats as "latte sipping, Volvo driving, Ivy-League educated" elitists, Hillary Clinton has gone to extravagant lengths to refashion herself into a working class candidate. This strategy began in Ohio, where she miraculously convinced voters that she was anti-NAFTA at the same time that she substantiated her experience vis-à-vis her "central role" in a pro-NAFTA White House. In Pennsylvania, her performance reached carnivalesque proportions, as the Ivy-League grad and former First Lady threw back shots in local pubs, hung out in bowling alleys, and popped caps in the flesh of innocent ducks. In the process, Clinton not only endeared herself to working-class whites, many of whom were desperately looking for excuses to support a white candidate, but also positioned herself as a grassroots underdog refusing to back down against a deep-pocketed bully. This is evidenced by her insufferable victory speech, where she says that she was "up against a formidable opponent who outspent us three-to-one. He broke every spending record in this state, trying to knock us out of the race." Such tactics will galvanize working class voters in Indiana and give the super-delegates a legitimate consideration for the future: Can Obama win the working class vote?
Marc Lamont Hill is Assistant Professor of Urban Education and American Studies at Temple University.
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Keys to Obama's Keystone Loss
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View All Comments »rickd at 04/25/2008 4:17:41 PM
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Pennsyltucky? Because there's nothing but po' white crackers between Philly and Pittsburgh? That's easily the most racist and inflammatory (not to mention uninformed) comment I've read in months, and this is from someone who believe the media took Rev. Wright's comments completely out of context.
Your interpretation of the mid-state's voting patterns are as off-base as your characterizations. Obama is still viewed as an unknown, and his unwillingness to address specifics as to how he plans to implement changes to health care or withdraw from Iraq is what stunted broader approval, not redneck hate. There are diverse and thriving smaller cities in this area in Harrisburg, Lancaster, Reading, and my hometown of York.
Besides, his major endorsement came from Sen. Casey, who is beloved here in what you think of as KKK-central, and Clinton's came from Rendell...Philly's most beloved mayor. So, taking those factors into consideration and seeing as how Obama barely carried Philly, which he was supposed to own, how can you justify your characterizations of a middle-class, salt of the earth communites as backwater America? Complete ignorance.
peachie49 at 04/25/2008 9:33:09 AM
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At the time of Senator Obama's announcement in Feb 2007, he seemed a "perfect" choice, a bi-racial man, raised by white mother and white grandparents, married with no hint of infidelity in his past, church going, intelligent, speaks "English", "benign", Negro! This man is no Jessie Jackson or Al Sharpton. After his introductory victory in Iowa, blacks, who at first were suspicious took a second look away from their "Beloved Clinton Co-Presidency" and saw that there might be a chance for a more "authentic" Negro to win the White House, of course with white approval. But alas, it was not meant to be, The old "rally the white folks" devil began to raise its head and this "son a a white Kansas mother" became a "Southern, pitch-black, nappy headed, gold tooth, no talking, ignorant, colored boy" right before our very eyes! Obama, who grew up in the multi-cultural haven of Hawaii, who probably had very minimal contact with black American until his arrival in Chicago around the age of 25 or 26 years old, has now officially become "ONE OF US". Not only is his shot at the White House lost, NC and Indiana will both be won by Hillary the "milky white" girl, but she must have the Democratic nomination, after all, only a "true white democrat" can take on McCain. Now what will the darkies do? Why they'll just line up behind "Miss Hillary" with Nutter, Juan Williams, Sandra Tubbs Jones, Maxine Waters and all the other grinning lawn pieces saying to Obama, "see what happens when you step out of line"? Obama, the benign, not only loses the democratic nomination, he is finished politically. You can best believe that those white folks in Illinois will not be sending him back to the Senate! Maybe he can write another book, or try to get him a teaching jobs or apply for one of those corporate law firms that he turned down and see if they'll accept him.
hamilrob at 04/25/2008 9:13:38 AM
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Instead of over-analyzing why Barack Obama lost PA, ask why Hillary's margin of victory evaporated by as many points as it did. PA was always Hillary's to win, so asking why Obama lost is simply a masked effort to try to portray him as a potential loser in November. Hillary Clinton could do the Democratic Party a huge favor and just drop out of the race. She won't do that because she doesn't care if Obama loses in November as long as she gets another shot at the presidency in 2012. Staying in the race continues to defeat the Democrats before the general election begins. his is her selfish strategy and your next set of articles should ask why she iks doing everything in her power to sabotage the Democratic Party's chance to win the White House in November.
Robert W. Hamilton
Phoenix, AZ